Are Application Numbers Being Propped Up by Old DIPs?
Investigating whether this week's reasonable application volume is masking a pipeline quality issue, given a significant drop in xApps.
Finding
No — the DIP-to-application vintage distribution is within normal bounds.
The disconnect between low xApps and reasonable application volume is a timing lag. xApps reflects this week's DIP intake quality, which is genuinely low. But actual applications landing this week are converting from the previous 1–2 weeks' healthier pipeline. If the current lower-quality DIP intake persists beyond half-term, we would expect application volume to soften in 1–2 weeks.
01 — The Signal
DIP Quality Dropped Sharply This Week
The average xApp rate fell to 0.303 — the lowest observed — driven by a surge in Home Hunter DIPs (casual property shoppers) and a drop in Full DIP volume.
Avg xApp Rate
0.303
vs 0.36–0.39 recent norm
Home Hunters Share
68%
vs 54–62% recent norm
Full DIPs / Day
~9
vs 12–15 recent norm
Weekly xApp Rate & Home Hunter Share
Avg xApp Rate
% Home Hunters
Week Starting
DIPs
% Home Hunters
Avg xApp
Full DIPs / Day
19 January
160
54%
0.394
~15
26 January
156
62%
0.373
~12
2 February
154
57%
0.365
~13
9 February
154
57%
0.365
~13
16 February 3 days
83
68%
0.303
~9
02 — The Test
Where Did This Week's Applications Come From?
We broke down all 35 applications submitted this week by when their first DIP was run. If old DIPs were propping up the numbers, we'd see an unusual concentration from older vintages.
This week (16–18 Feb)1440%
Last week (9–15 Feb)720%
2 weeks ago (2–8 Feb)720%
Older (pre-February)720%
DIP Vintage
Applications
% of Total
Avg Days to Convert
This week (16–18 Feb)
14
40%
1.2
Last week (9–15 Feb)
7
20%
7.1
2 weeks ago (2–8 Feb)
7
20%
16.4
Older (pre-February)
7
20%
66.0
03 — The Comparison
The Vintage Mix Is Within Normal Bounds
Comparing same-week DIP conversion rates across recent weeks confirms this week's distribution is not unusual. The "older" DIP share at 29% is slightly elevated but not an outlier.
Application Source by DIP Vintage (% of Weekly Apps)
Same Week
1 Week Prior
Older
Week Starting
Total Apps
Same-Week DIPs
1 Week Prior
Older DIPs
13 January
53
30%
26%
13%
19 January
63
38%
25%
21%
26 January
44
39%
18%
18%
2 February
67
43%
25%
19%
16 February
35
37%
23%
29%
04 — The Context
Mon–Wed Application Volume Is Actually Strong
Comparing like-for-like (Mon–Wed only), this week has the highest application count in recent weeks, reinforcing that the pipeline is converting normally from prior weeks' intake.
Applications Received Mon–Wed
Key Takeaways
xApps is a leading indicator — it measures current DIP quality, not current application conversion. The two are lagged by 1–2 weeks.
This week's DIP quality is genuinely the lowest observed (avg xApp 0.303 vs the 0.36–0.44 range) driven by a Home Hunters surge to 68% and Full DIP volume dropping to ~9/day.
Application numbers are not being artificially propped up. The vintage distribution — 40% same-week, 20% last week, 20% two weeks ago, 20% older — is within normal bounds.
Half-term (17–21 February) likely explains the shift — more casual property browsing, fewer serious broker-led applications.
Watch item: If this low-quality DIP intake persists beyond half-term, application volume is likely to soften in 1–2 weeks as the current higher-quality backlog clears.